Feierdeeg entscheede weidere Pandemie-Verlaf

Bléck op d’ Kalennerwoch 51

An der Woch tëscht dem 13. an dem 20. Dezember gesäit een ee méi däitleche Réckgang an der Zuel vun de Neiinfektiounen, mir si bei elo minus 22 Prozent, an der Virwoch waren et -10 Prozent. Duerch d’ Schoulvakanz, ass dës Woch een nach méi däitleche Réckgang méiglech. Déi nei Mesuren déi Ënn dëser Woch a Kraaft trieden, wäerte réischt nom Joreswiessel een Effekt weisen. 

Och am Large Scale Testing ass ee weidere Réckgang ze gesinn, et gëtt och eng staark Korrelatioun tëscht der Zuel u Neiinfektiounen an dem Positivitéitstaux am LST. Béid Grafike weisen och eng verstäerkten Tendenz no Ennen tëscht de Kalennerwoche 50 op 51, och hei wier ze erwaarden, dass de Schoulvakanz-Effekt Enn dëser Woch och hei eraspillt.

Em wat et déi nächst Woche geet

Déi grouss Onbekannten den Ament sinn d’ Feierdeeg. Dofir versichen ech a 4 Zenarie scheemenhaft ze erkläre wat geschéie kéint.

Zenario 1: Et wier alles bliwwe wei bis elo an d’ Leit géifen déi gläich Unzuel u Kontakter halen (wat duerch d’ Feierdeeg éischter net ze erwaarden ass)

Zenario 2: Duerch verschäerfte Mesuren, erreecht ee méi séier ee gewëssent Zil.

Zenario 3: Déi verschäerfte Mesure sinn do, op de Feierdeeg kennt et zu méi Kontakter a méi Iwwerdroungen. Fir op dat gewënschten Zil ze komme brauch ee méi laang.

Zenario 4: Op de Feierdeeg an zum Joreswiessel gëtt richteg profitéiert, d’ Zuele klammen nees, dat gewënschten Zil gëtt vill méi spéit erreecht. (Spréch, de Lockdown ass net den 10. Januar eriwwer, ma éischter Ënn Januar oder méi spéit)

Et sinn also d’ Feierdeeg an d’ Behuele vun all Eenzelen déi entscheede wei de weidere Verlaf vun der Pandemie zu Lëtzebuerg wäert sinn. An esou muss een och kloer an däitlech soen, dat all Efforten déi iwwert déi lescht Woche gemaach goufen um Spill stinn, well et ass och méiglech, dat d’ Zuelen nees klammen (Zenario 4).

Strategie fir Schoulen

Och de Bléck op d’ Schoule gëtt am Januar wesentlech, wann iwwer Lockerunge geschwat gëtt.

An dëser Grafik gesäit een, datt iwwert d’ Wochen d’ Fäll an de Schoulen zouhuelen, obwuel et an der Gesamtpopulatioun manner Fäll gëtt.

Et ka sinn dat duerch méi Tester a besseren Tracing méi Fäll an de Schoule fonnt ginn.

Ma och eng Etüd aus Groussbritannien weist, datt d’ Prevalenz bei de Kanner wesentlech méi héich ass, wei an der Gesamtpopulatioun (1).

(1) <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest

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